NOTE: AO has 10 issues in 2000.  Please note that reports are released in one
month, BUT THE ISSUE DATE IS FOR THE FOLLOWING MONTH; e.g., the May 2000 issue
is released in April.

AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK -- SUMMARY                        November 20, 2000
December  2000, ERS-AO-277
     Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
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This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department
of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831.  The complete text of the 
report will be available electronically 2 working days following this summary
release.    
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 Food Assistance Programs & Poverty Rates in Mexico

     A major food assistance initiative in Mexico-Progresa-is aimed at
alleviating the chronic poverty faced by many Mexicans. About 40
percent of families in Mexico are poor, but this doesn't reflect the
variation in poverty rates across states--from 21 percent to 63
percent. The five most rural states are those with the highest poverty
rates, while several of the states with relatively low poverty rates
are near the U.S. border. The government of Mexico has indicated its
commitment to eradicate poverty and improve the well-being of families
in both the short and long run, with particular emphasis on the poorer
states.
     
     In addition to distributing direct food assistance, the Progresa
program provides children with scholarship and financial support for
school supplies and offers free basic health services to families. To
the extent that Progresa helps alleviate poverty in Mexico, especially
in rural areas where most of the benefits are targeted, Mexico could
eventually become a larger market for U.S. agricultural and other
products as incomes rise.
Craig Gundersen (202)694-5425; cggunder@ers.usda.gov


Technology & Food System Productivity in APEC Economies

     Technology will play a key role in raising food-sector
productivity to keep pace with population growth and rising affluence
in the APEC region in the long term.  A report released at APEC's 12th
Ministerial Meeting in Brunei on November 12-13 indicates that
technology will be essential in raising yields at the farm level and
reducing losses, enhancing quality and freshness, and increasing the
speed of delivery to consumers. The availability of new biotech methods
may help offset diminishing returns from traditional plant breeding
programs and help meet rising demand for greater quantities of food and
dietary upgrading.

     Incorporating information technology into the food supply system
will provide greater access to markets for farmers, increased flows of
information for market participants, opportunities for enhanced
efficiency for businesses, and better services for consumers.
Technologies applied to marketing and processing food products can
reduce waste and inefficiencies in the food system. Technology
development and adoption is likely to be key in supporting the region's
food supply system, particularly with the rapid urbanization in Asia.
William Coyle (202) 694-5216; wcoyle@ers.usda.gov
Americans Relish Cucumbers

     Cucumber use in the U.S. climbed steadily since the 1960's, with
consumption reaching 3 billion pounds in 1999. Per capita use of
cucumbers has risen during each of the past four decades, reaching 10.3
pounds in the 1990's. Sixty percent of cucumbers are consumed in fresh
form, mostly at home. The remaining 40 percent is consumed as pickled
products, with one-third used in fast foods, largely reflecting
sandwich use (e.g., hamburgers) and associated condiment demand
(relishes).

     U.S. cucumber production totaled 2.4 billion pounds in 1999-about
equally split between the fresh and processing markets. Average annual
farm value was $361 million during 1997-99. Florida is the leading
cucumber state, producing 19 percent of the nation's output during 1997-
99, with Michigan a close second and California ranking third. During
the 1990's, about 8 percent of the fresh-market volume was exported.
Gary Lucier (202) 694-5253; glucier@ers.usda.gov


World Cotton Market: A Decade of Change

     Global cotton consumption is forecast to reach a record high in
2000/01, after stagnating during much of the 1990's.  The upturn in
global cotton consumption is led by the developing economies of China,
Pakistan, and India.  In China, recent liberalization of the cotton
sector and sales of government-held stocks have fueled a surge in
cotton consumption. In wealthier countries, including the U.S., cotton
consumption by textile producers is expected to decline as textile and
apparel exports from developing Asian countries continue to displace
domestic production.

     For 2000/01, U.S. cotton production and demand are forecast to
rise from the previous year.  U.S. cotton production is currently
forecast at 17.5 million 480-pound bales, or 3 percent above 1999.
Increased demand for U.S. cotton is led by exports, forecast at 7.6
million bales-13 percent above 1999.  U.S. cotton consumption by
domestic textile mills is projected at 10 million bales, the lowest
since 1991.  Stephen MacDonald (202) 694-5305; stephenm@ers.usda.gov


Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program: A Federal-State Partnership

     The Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program (CREP), which allows
states to supplement Federal incentives offered to farmers under the
Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), has played a role in encouraging
land retirement for conservation purposes in some states.  In Maryland,
for instance, almost half of the CRP enrollment has occurred under the
CREP. The 3-year-old CREP helps participating states address more state-
specific goals and target conservation practices that may not be
enrollable under the CRP.  The 13 states that currently participate in
CREP offer a mix of Federal and state enrollment incentives, including
cost sharing, rental payments, and up-front payments.  However, the
lack of clear relationships between economic incentives and CREP
enrollment progress indicates that non-financial considerations may
also play a role in determining program enrollment.
 Mark E. Smith (202) 694-5490; mesmith@ers.usda.gov

     
Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
Full text of Agricultural Outlook will be available 11/21 at
http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/reports/erssor/economics/ao-bb/2000/
The magazine in PDF will be posted in about 5 days, and printed copies
will be available in about 2 weeks.

END_OF_FILE
